The 2026 Ballon d'Or, won by Harry Kane, is at the centre of a suspected insider trading case: an award given by a high-level jury, tainted by a betting market without identity verification and a €240,000 bet that brought in €440,000 in profit on Polymarket. The anonymous bettor is alleged to have divided the capital into 12 accounts created between late September and early October, selling sure-fire odds on Kane's victory and betting that Mbappé would overtake Yamal in the final standings, an outcome that was later confirmed to be exactly that.
According to experts, a bet with a very high risk and relatively small profit would suggest that the person had access to confidential information before the ceremony. The alarm has been raised and the technical details of this operation have been explained by specialists from “Upside Groupe”, a company specializing in the analysis of prediction markets and digital financial flows, who have explained the fraudulent scheme, which became apparent when the mysterious bettor divided his capital.
Polymarket and the legal loophole: the New York state lawsuit
But how could something like this happen on the eve of one of the most important events, such as the Ballon d'Or? The core of the problem lies in the infrastructure of these new digital prediction platforms, including Polymarket, which does not require formal verification of the identity of its users, preventing immediate control of fraud cases. Recently, the state of New York has filed an official lawsuit against Polymarket, accusing it of operating as an illegal sports betting platform, without a license and bypassing consumer protection laws.
How the 12 account scheme works at Polymarket
According to analysts at Upside Groupe, the anonymous person did not play from a single profile, but divided around 240,000 euros into 12 similar accounts, created from scratch on the eve of the ceremony. In each of them, the movement was the same: selling odds on Kane's victory, the most likely outcome, and betting on Mbappé to beat Yamal. Dividing the amount avoids the possibility that a single bet, with a very large value, could change the odds and attract attention, while new profiles, with no activity history, on a platform that does not verify identity, leave no trace of the person behind them.
It is precisely the coincidence between seemingly independent accounts, combined with a statistically unfavorable selection, that has led analysts to speak of a coordinated operation, even though so far no authority has found any legal violations.
What footballers risk when betting: the Fagioli and Tonali cases
In the specific case of the Ballon d'Or, of course, all the players involved are completely unrelated to the events. But when the problem of illegal betting moves from financial speculators to the direct protagonists on the pitch, the consequences often become drastic. We have learned this from the recent cases involving several Italian footballers, such as Fagioli and Tonali. According to article 24 of the FIGC Code of Sports Justice, anyone who violates this rule risks very serious sanctions, up to a minimum suspension of three years from sporting competitions, although in the two specific cases the penalties were reduced thanks to the agreement to accept the punishment and the rehabilitation process.
