The new edition of the Champions League 2026–2027 brings with it one of the most classic questions: how many points will Inter, Napoli, Roma and Como get and in what position will they be ranked in the league phase? The four Italian teams already know the eight opponents they will face, but the calendar, starting from this first day, shows four very different paths. To answer this question, we have simulated with AI the journey to the Cup of the Italian teams, taking into account a series of factors, such as the technical level of the teams, the field factor, the salary fund and UEFA coefficients, Expected Goals and the general difficulty of the calendar.
The projections obtained see Inter ahead of all Italian teams (15-16 points), with a high chance of finishing among the top 8 teams and qualifying directly for the play-offs. Napoli, which last season was ranked 30th, should manage, together with Roma, to capture the play-off zone (13-15 points is the predicted points range). While Como, in its debut, is called upon to perform a miracle to stay among the top 24 teams and avoid elimination. The simulation, in fact, awards the Lombards a maximum of 7-9 points. But these are hypotheses; the field will show how well-founded the predictions are. Meanwhile, the first day already offers three very difficult tests: Real Madrid-Inter, Napoli-Arsenal and Fenerbahçe-Roma, while Como awaits Leipzig.
Inter, the prediction is for the 1/8 zone
Among the Italian teams, Inter is the team that has the greatest chance of fighting to be ranked among the top eight. But there are difficulties: three matches with great difficulty (Real Madrid, Liverpool and the transfer to Dortmund against Borussia), which could consume the reserve of points that should be accumulated by taking advantage of the confrontations with opponents that are inferior on paper (Club Brugge, Shakhtar, Feyenoord, Stuttgart, Slovan Bratislava). The projection gives the black and blue 15-16 points and a position between 6th and 9th place.
Napoli, the calendar can help them for the playoffs
The 30th place of the previous year represented a stain on the direction of the technician Antonio Conte and, at the same time, a bad performance for Napoli, the champion of Italy, in addition to costing the club significant income on the balance sheet. For this reason, this year the club hopes that the team will have a different, better and also more profitable journey. What can the team of the technician Allegri do? The blues start with a very difficult challenge: Arsenal at home. Then comes Villarreal away, Bodo/Glimt at Maradona, Porto away, Manchester City away, Club Brugge at home, Sabah away and Vikingur at home. The points gap is 13-15, a balance that should allow the Neapolitans to at least reach the play-offs, ranking among the top 15 teams. In the event of a success against one of Arsenal, Villarreal, Porto or Manchester City, the scenario would become more interesting.
How can Roma make it to the playoffs?
The schedule of Roma coach Gasperini is full of traps, starting with a very "hot" debut at Fenerbahce, where former striker Romelu Lukaku plays. Then the yellow and reds have Real Madrid and Slovan Bratislava at home, Manchester United at Old Trafford, Paris Saint-Germain at Parc des Princes, Sporting Lisbon at the Olimpico, AEK Athens away and Lille at home. According to the simulation, Roma should finish between 12th and 17th place, collecting 13-14 points and securing the play-offs for the 1/8.
Como: the chilling end with PSG and Barcelona
Como's schedule is terrible in the last two weeks, when they will face Paris Saint-Germain (at home) and Barcelona (at Camp Nou). Two Champions League giants, against whom the Lombards will bet their remaining hopes of staying in the Cup. The debut is at home against Leipzig, then come Feyenoord away, Manchester United at home, Lens away, AEK Athens at home, Real Betis away, before the final duo with the French and the Catalans. The simulation stops at 7-9 points, with a projection that places the team of technician Fabregas between 25th and 30th place.
