Albania has been past its population peak for 35 years and, according to United Nations projections, demographic contraction is expected to continue throughout this century. The World Population Prospects 2024 series, on which the new Our World in Data analysis is based, places Albania’s population peak in 1991, at 3,282,602 inhabitants.
But even more alarming is a United Nations projection.
In the UN’s medium scenario, Albania’s population drops to just 1,184,997 by 2100. That would mean about 2.1 million fewer people than at its peak in 1991, or a contraction of 63.9%. From the projected level for 2026 alone to 2100, the country would lose about 1.57 million people, more than half of today’s population, according to the UN series.
Albania began its decline 29 years before Europe
Albania's demographic turn has come much earlier than that of Europe as a whole. According to the same UN database, the population of the European continent peaked in 2020, with around 749.2 million inhabitants. So, Albania had passed its peak 29 years earlier. By 2100, Europe's population is projected to be around 592.3 million inhabitants, approximately 21% below its peak, a much more moderate percentage contraction than the 63.9% that emerges for Albania.
In fact, Albania belongs to a generation of Eastern and Southeastern European countries that reached their demographic peak very early. Serbia peaked in 1987, Bulgaria in 1988, and Croatia in 1990. Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina reached it in 1991.
In the rest of the region, the UN series places Kosovo's peak in 1997 and North Macedonia's in 2005, while Greece continued to grow until 2010. Montenegro and Slovenia reached their maximum much later, in 2024. Turkey is one of the region's exceptions: in the medium scenario, its population continues to grow for about two more decades and peaks around 2047.
By 2100, only Bosnia is projected to experience a stronger decline than Albania in the region.
Even more significant is the comparison of the size of the projected contraction. In the group of Balkan countries compared, Albania stands out among the countries losing the largest portion of their population from its historical maximum by 2100.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is projected to decline from 4.46 million inhabitants at its peak in 1991 to 1.37 million in 2100, or about 69.4% less. Albania follows closely behind with a 63.9% decline. For Bulgaria, the contraction from peak to 2100 is about 60.7%, for North Macedonia 58.7%, Croatia 55.7%, Serbia about 53.1% and Kosovo 50.2%.
The projected decline is more moderate in Montenegro, with about 49% from the peak by 2100, in Greece with about 44% and especially in Slovenia, where the population at the end of the century comes out about 23% lower than the maximum.
Albania's position fits into a broader phenomenon in Eastern Europe. Our World in Data notes that almost all countries that have now passed their population peak are in Europe and East Asia, where the decline in fertility has been rapid and rates have remained low. For Eastern European countries, high emigration has further added to the downward pressure on population. /Taken from ekofin.al
